With the imminent arrival of the 2012 model cars - yes, it is that time of year - there are some exact trends that can be seen in an commerce that employs about one in six American workers. (Statistics show that about a sixth of the workforce is directly employed or impacted by the auto industry.)
No matter how you look at it, the auto commerce does have an awesome whole of power in this economy. For example, you have the any hundred thousand workers employed either by the factories or dealerships that sell and assistance their vehicles. Then, there are the secondary industries that provide the manufacturers and then there are the tertiary industries that provide the secondary industries. It's like the old domino game where one block falls and they all come crashing down.
With that much at stake, then, it's a good idea to see where we might be in 12 months.
Consolidation to continue
Given the frailness - some would say chronic malaise - of the automotive cheaper in this country, it is likely that consolidation will continue. Last year we saw the Fiat return to this market as it purchased about a 23 percent share of the Chrysler Corp. By the same token, Ford gave up its shares of Volvo and Jaguar. Volvo was purchased by the Chinese maker Gheely, while India's highly successful Tata purchased the previous Ford subsidiary Jaguar. Ford's remaining keeping - one it is likely to keep - is the highly successful Mazda.
Actually, the cross-ownership issues get even more confusing - and if the cheaper weakens further it might become a case of needing a roadmap to ownership, but that hasn't happened just yet - still if you look at the Vw empire you'll find Bentley, Audi, Bugatti (the name's still alive), Lamborghini, Seat (formerly Spanish Fiat) and Skoda (formerly independent), while Toyota has some surprising names apart from the ones ordinarily linked such as Scion and Lexus. The Toyota manufacturing train controls Daihatsu, Hino (trucks) and Isuzu, as well as a business called Fuji which just happens to own Subaru. Then there's Hyundai and Kia in Korea while India's Tata controls not only Jaguar but also Land Rover and Renault, believe it or not, has a controlling share of a small Japanese carmaker named Nissan and, thus, Infiniti. Not to be outdone, Gm, which did in its Pontiac, Oldsmobile and Saturn subsidiaries still controls Chevy, Buick, Gmc, Cadillac, Opel (Germany), Vauxhall, Holden and a small business called Daewoo.
Fiat, as noted, owns about 23 percent of Chrysler, purchased during last year's bailout of the struggling automaker, which automatically gives it operate of the still-popular Jeep line and Dodge, as well as Alfa-Romeo, Ferrari, Lancia and Maserati, while Bmw owns Mini and Rolls-Royce. And then there's the Smart group of Mercedes-Benz.
China looms large
One Chinese motor group that is beginning to make some market noise is Lev, while the - now - world's largest cheaper continues to pull in vehicles at a high rate. Look for further Chinese pressure to purchase their way into markets, and, if they cannot, look for them to organize their own vehicles. With the world's largest citizen and a burgeoning middle class, the question for cars is outstripping China's ability to provide them. India is a potential sleeper here.
Just a few years ago, the phrase "who'd a thunk it?" (who would have notion it), would have applied to this mind-blowing economic powerhouse, but, truth to tell, they are in the driver's seat.
Other than which business has just closed digesting others, there are other trends to watch that spell the key to the auto commerce of the teens to come.
For example, look at the Chevy Malibu restyle! Spy photos and hard copy obtained show a sculpted and sleekly rounded body with a deep valance extending practically to road level. The rocker panels along the doors are also at this level and the rear-end valance completes the ground effects quantum of this style. This effectively cuts off a huge area of low pressure under the Malibu and helps to flat its line to the wind.
Ground effects
The drawback from this styling is that you just can't run into curbing or large ruts like you may be been used to doing as you will damage the underside of the body, as well as some of the running gear of the Malibu. The front end is deeply sculpted with pronounced smoothing and rounding of the fenders. The light modules are fared into the front fender/grille/hood projection so that the lines remain smooth. The hood is also highly sculpted for minimum low pressure and excellent windflow. And, the air intakes are sculpted into the front fender/valance/bumper with two areas reserved for fog lamps.
The hood flows up from this front end and descends from a high point in the middle to the sides where it meets the bumpers so the lines remain clean.
The surface is pretty much free of extraneous styling cues, other than a high beltline, and windows that are fared into the greenhouse to present a flat shape to the wind. The roof meets the windows and A-, B- and C-pillars with cutouts that make the door tops pieces of the thorough design. The joints where the doors and roof meet are tight and flat as the roofline flows to the sloping rear window and short-decked rear end.
The rear end is closed by small lip and a vertical piece. The lip breaks up the low pressure area inevitably created by the straightened rear lighting area. The next Malibu restyle, though, rounds the whole assembly for a smoother air flow as the sail panels and rounded rear quarters are also pieces of a unified whole.
An Organic Design
If there was a word to tell this organize it would be organic as it seems to have been designed by nature and not by man and computer.
It's tantalizing to note that this trend toward radically sculpted and rounded cars started or was started about the time of the issue of the Hyundai Genesis, voted the 2008 North American Car of the Year. Just 10 years ago, no one in his right mind in the auto business would have picked Hyundai to be a styling leader in the car industry? No one that we can think of!
Here are some other sure trends to watch for 2012-2013:
Alternatives: While hybrids have been the commerce sweethearts for more than a decade now, they are about to be elbowed aside by other forms of propulsion. Look for an growth in bio-fuel vehicles, using fuel developed from weed plants and plants that are fast-growing water plants that choke waterways. With good cultivation, you can have complicated crops per season and help to cut dependence on imported crude.
All-Electrics: The Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Volt, both all-electric vehicles that take separate approaches to power, will be joined by other all-electrics such as Toyota's Prius and others. These vehicles will fee at night, when the grid is at its quietest and rates are low, and give you ranges in the middle of 40 and 400 miles. The Volt, by the way, is called by some a hybrid because it uses an engine. It is true the Chevy does have a small four-cylinder powerplant, but it is dedicated to charging the Lithium-ion battery pack. Nissan provides a home charging middle point option as an added cost option.
Other Fuels: Following a long test in cities nearby the country, it finally looks like hydrogen/fuel-celled vehicles may be ready for prime time as Gmc is finding its hydrogen-powered, fuel-cell vehicles do work. And, like the fuel-cells, Honda has a natural-gas-powered model that is as distinguished as a acceptable car and has the same range.
The Shrinking Car: As cars like the Smart and Mini proved, citizen are willing to drive small cars so look for sizes to start shrinking even more quickly. The Ford Fiesta and Fiat 500 are prime examples of that trend and Toyota cannot keep its pipeline of Yaris models filled. The attraction is super fuel cheaper and inexpensive cargo capacity and passenger-hauling ability.
While these are the broad brush trends of the next four or five years. They report what is essentially an entirely new direction for an commerce that has all the time notion that large and distinguished were all that citizen wanted. Now drivers want comfort, fuel economy, all-wheel-drive and other safety measures, as well.
2012 Car Year - Likely to See Sleeker Vehicles and More Alternative Fuel